Analysis and forecasting of carbon emission from directhousehold energy consumption in Gansu
LI Yuan1,2, XU Kun3, XIE Ying-zhong1*
（1 School of Agriculture, Ningxia University；2 School of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University；3 Key Lab for Restoration and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystem in North-western China of Ministry of Education, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia ,China)
Abstract:
Carbon emission coefficient and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI)method were used to calculate carbon emission of direct household energy consumption and analyze the influence factors. And prediction model was built by combining several methods. Results show that: (1)The amount of carbon emission appeared a growing trend in 2000—2010, and growth range was 55.14%. In terms of energy type, the emission caused by carbon was largest. As far as urban-rural structure, the per capita carbon emission (PCE) of urban is larger than that of rural. However, rural population is bigger than urban, the total carbon emission of former is larger. (2) The per capita consumption level and energy consumption intensity play the promoting and restraining roles for PCE separately. The deep-root reasons are that per capita consumption level, population proportion and consumption ratio of urban increased, meanwhile, energy consumption intensity in urban decreased. (3) The combination forecasting model based on GM（1,1）and cubic polynomial forecasting model is suitable and has high forecasting accuracy.
KeyWords:
Gansu; Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index( LMDI); combination forecasting
