Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of the arable land in Loess Plateau during the last 300 years
LI Xiao-yan1,2, REN Zhi-yuan1*, ZHANG Chong1
（1 College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University，Xi′an 710062, Shaanxi, China; 2 Hanshui Culture Research Center, School of History and Tourism, Shaanxi Universityof Technology, Hanzhong 723000, Shaanxi, China）
Abstract:
Using the arable land grid data, based on barycenter change model, the relative change ratio of a single land use, reclamation ratio and RBF neural network, the spatial and temporal variation of arable land in Loess Plateau during the last 300 years were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) the year of 1980 was a turning point for the change of arable land and the reclamation rate, after that, arable land area increased rapidly;the reclamation barycenter was transferred to southwest over large distances,and the rising velocity of reclamation rate increased significantly. (2) Before 1980, the cultivated area in different elevation and slope was less volatile over time; the small slope of the low altitude areas of cultivated land began to significantly decrease since 1980, while the high altitude and steep slope areas of cultivated land area increased significantly , so regular pattern of large changes in land; (3) there was significant regional differences in arable land area of each county, and which showed some directionality; (4)there will be a large difference in reclamation strength between southeast and the northwest areas in 2020.
KeyWords:
arable land; barycenter model; RBF neural network; Loess Plateau
