Abstract:
A forecasting model of domestic tourists of 31 provinces in Mainland China is established based on the self-determination factors. The 5 impact factors of abundant of A-class scenery sights, province′s population, the per capita GDP, the level of urbanization and education, location index of transport are selected, and using statistic data of 31 provinces in Mainland China in 2002 and 2004, a forecast model of domestic tourists with exponent multiplied structure is built, the flexibility and the marginal contribution of various factors is analyzed. Comparing the results of regression analysis with statistical data of domestic tourists of 31 provinces, the time changes of the 5 parameters in the forecast model are analyzed, and the departure coefficient of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong three provinces are defined. Taking the 5 parameters and departure coefficient in the forecast model, the domestic tourists of 31 provinces in Mainland China in 2005 is established, at the 95 percent confidence level, the forecast result is a strong correlation and the relative error is small. This work is provided a new method for forecasting the domestic tourist of 31 provinces in Mainland China at speediness and batch.
