Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the rapidly growing tourism industry and tourism recovery has became a hot topic because of the improved epidemic situation in China. To reveal the recovery process of tourism in different risk areas and explore the relationship between normalized epidemic prevention and recovery of tourism, four game models between epidemic prevention and tourism restoration were built and road, railway and air passenger volume were used as alternative indicators of tourism passenger flow to test the model. Finally the recovery of passenger volume in the case was predicted based on Logistic growth curve and was used as a "popular" indicator to deduce tourism recovery. The results show that: (1) According to the holiday tourism data, the year-on-year recovery rate in Labour Day holiday is about 20%-50% and about 70% in National Day holiday among which Hainan province recovers the fastest and Hubei the slowest.(2) Taking road passenger volume as an indicator for short-distance tourism, the recovery curves of different provinces are different under different risk situations. Hainan province, with the lowest risk, shows a V-shaped recovery;Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic, shows a U-shaped recovery; Beijing city and Jilin province, where the epidemic is repeated, show a W-shaped recovery. The recovery of long-distance railway and air passenger transport is less affected by the fluctuation of the epidemic.(3)According to the Logistic growth curve prediction, the passenger capacity of Hainan recovered the fastest. The recovery of railway and air passenger transport are slightly faster than that of road. Under the influence of "stay put" policy for the Spring Festival, the passenger capacity decreased from January to February in 2021 dramatically but the subsequent recovery rate was faster than that in 2020. It was indicated that epidemic control policy affects the recovery of passenger capacity.
