自然科学版
陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版)
贫困地区交通可达性与经济发展专题
秦巴山区交通可达性对人口分布时空格局的影响
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谭玮宝1,2,黄晓燕1,2*,路改改1,2,吴曼诗3,殷江滨1,2
(1 陕西师范大学 西北国土资源研究中心,陕西 西安 710119;2 陕西师范大学 全球区域与城市研究院,陕西 西安 710119;3 陕西师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院,陕西 西安 710119)
黄晓燕,女,教授,博士,硕士生导师,主要研究方向为城市交通地理与城乡规划。Email: hxiaoy@snnu.edu.cn
摘要:
明晰人口分布时空格局及其影响因素对于理解人地关系,实现人口、资源、环境的可持续发展具有重要意义。以秦巴山区为例,以县域为基本单元,运用空间分析技术和空间面板杜宾模型,定量揭示交通可达性对人口分布时空格局的影响。研究表明:(1)秦巴山区人口空间分异特征明显,呈现外高内低、南多北少的总体格局,2000—2015年秦巴山区常住人口数呈现总体减少态势,且外围边缘地区减小幅度与速度更快。(2)秦巴山区人口分布时空格局受到气温、地形起伏度、到特大城市的距离、县财政支出、县固定资产投资、GDP等因素的共同作用。(3)公路可达性和铁路可达性均对人口数量分布产生正向直接效应,研究区公路可达性和铁路可达性每提高1%,人口数量将分别增加1.96%和1.91%。(4)公路可达性对人口分布还具有间接空间溢出效应,相邻县城的公路可达性每提高1%,本县人数增加1.58%。
关键词:
交通可达性;人口分布;秦巴山区;空间面板杜宾模型
收稿日期:
2020-11-30
中图分类号:
F512.7;C924.2
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
16724291(2021)02001513
基金项目:
国家自然科学基金(41871168,42071213,41831284);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2018JM4006, 2018JM4022);陕西师范大学青年学术带头人及学术骨干资助计划(18QNGG013)
Doi:
Influence of accessibility on the spatiotemporal pattern of population distribution in QinlingBashan Mountain areas
TAN Weibao1,2, HUANG Xiaoyan1,2*, LU Gaigai1,2, WU Manshi3, YIN Jiangbin1,2
(1 Northwest Land and Resources Research Center, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710119, Shaanxi, China; 2 Global Regional and Urban Research Institute, Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119, Shaanxi, China; 3 School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University,Xi′an 710119, Shaanxi, China)
Abstract:
It is of great significance to clarify the spatiotemporal pattern of population distribution and its influential mechanism.This can improve the understanding of the humanearth relationship.Moreover, the sustainable development of population, resources and environment can be realized.QinlingBashan Mountain areas, one of the concentrated contiguous destitute areas announced by the state, was taken as an example.On the basic unit of county, the degree of influence of transport elements on the spatial distribution of population was quantitatively revealed by virtue of spatial analysis technology and spatial panel Durbin model. The results show that the population of QinlingBashan Mountain areas has obvious characteristics of spatial differentiation, showing an overall pattern of “large outside and small inside, more in the south and less in the north”. In addition, the number of permanent residents in QinlingBashan Mountain areas from 2000 to 2015 shows an overall decrease tread, especially in peripheral areas. The spatiotemporal pattern of population distribution in QinlingBashan Mountain areas is jointly affected by temperature, terrain fluctuation, distance to the provincial capital and other mega cities, county financial expenditure, county fixed assets investment, GDP and other factors. Both highway accessibility and railway accessibility have obvious positive direct effects on population distribution. For every 1% increase in road accessibility and railway accessibility in the study area, the population will increase by 1.96% and 1.91%, respectively.Highway accessibility also has an indirect spatial spillover effect on population distribution. Every 1% increase in highway accessibility in neighboring counties will increase the local population by 1.58%.
KeyWords:
accessibility; population distribution; QinlingBashan Mountain areas; spatial panel Durbin model