Abstract:
The data of confirmed cases, death cases and cured cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in seven epidemic seriously affected countries (Italy, South Korea, the United Kingdom, the United States, France, Spain, Germany) were obtained from the System Science and Engineering Center at Johns Hopkins University. Data were collected between March 4, 2020 and April 4, 2020. Traditional SIR model was used and improved by adding a new parameter to characterize the infection coefficient changes over time, and regression analysis was introduced to estimate the parameters. Based on the improved SIR model, the development of COVID-19 in 7 countries were simulated and predicted, and the effects of contact rate control measures of different countries on epidemic development were analyzed. Results showed that the improved SIR model was reliable for analyzing the epidemic trend of COVID-19. Apart from the United Kingdom and the United States, the other five countries have had their pandemic under initial control, while the United Kingdom and the United States need to do more to reduce the pandemic damage. Our finding confirmed the importance of reducing population contact rate in COVID-19 prevention and control, such as reducing assembly, avoiding contact and centralized admission, so as to provide reference for the subsequent epidemic prevention and control.
