Abstract:
The outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019 is spreading around the world, causing serious impact on socio-economic development and human health and safety. Clarification of the spatial-temporal spread of COVID-19 at individual and population levels is necessary for epidemic prevention and control as well as resource allocation. This study targeted on Shenzhen city which locates far away from the COVID-19 origin city of Wuhan but experienced high incidence of COVID-19. Based on the officially published and confirmed cases, manually collected case details and the related POI data of Shenzhen, the epidemiological characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and prevention and control measures regarding COVID-19 in Shenzhen were analyzed through text analysis, mathematical statistics, spatial analysis and other methods. The results showed that: (1)the confirmed COVID-19 cases covered all age levels, mainly concentrated in the young adults. Most of them were the second generation of infection originating from the places out of Shenzhen, and they were mainly from family cluster transmission with “linear” migration and diffusion mode between cities. (2)The time evolution of epidemic experienced 4 stages: low incidence period, growing period, deceleration period and ending period. The number of cured cases presented the evolution process from slow growth to rapid growth. The time interval from onset to admission was mostly within 0~2 days, and the time interval from admission to diagnosis was about 1~3 days. (3)In terms of spatial distribution, the confirmed cases moved out mainly through two types: “directly from Hubei” and “stop by Hubei”, with the main purpose of visiting relatives during the Spring Festival. The spatial distribution of COVID-19 affected communities demonstrated “northeast to southwest” trend, mainly gathered in the southwest part around the “two cores”.(4)The overall risk distribution of the city was “two cores and three areas”. The high-risk areas were located in the south of Nanshan District and in the center of Futian District. Finally, combined with the situation of COVID-19, requirement of work recovery and the new risk from overseas, this study put forward an accurate prevention and control measure system based on the dimensions of “real-time, daily, normal”, “community, district, city” and “individual,family,society” from the perspective of “time-space-human” mutual feedback and integration.
