Mathematical model reveals the influence of execution and adherence of mitigation strategies on the later period of COVID-19 and resumption of work
LI Qian1, TANG Biao2, WU Jianhong2, XIAO Yanni1, TANG Sanyi3*
（1 School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi′an Jiaotong University, Xi′an 710049, Shaanxi, China;2 Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto M3J1P3, Ontario, Canada;3 School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710119, Shaanxi, China）
Abstract:
The epidemic of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has exhibited the decline trend with the enhanced containment and mitigation strategies. However, the resumption of work and reproduction, and the increasingly serious epidemic situation in other countries have brought severe challenges to face domestic non-proliferation and external input, in order to ensure the success of the prevention and control of the epidemic. Therefore, the execution and compliance of mitigation strategies will become the key factors that affecting the development of COVID-19 epidemic during late epidemic stage. By proposing a mathematical model that can describe the execution of decision makers and compliance of individuals, and integrating multi-source data, the impact of execution and compliance on the effective reproduction number and cumulative confirmed cases is analyzed. This improves people's understanding of the important role of execution and compliance of epidemic mitigation strategies, and serves the decision-making of resumption of work and prevention and control strategies.
KeyWords:
COVID-19; mathematical model; mitigation strategy; execution; adherence; effective reproduction number
