Abstract:
The “Hu Line” is a significant geographical boundary of China′s population and economy distribution. Tourism has strong liquidity and economic driving ability. Whether domestic tourism can take the lead in breaking through the "Hu Line" is an important step to achieve balanced economic development between China′s eastern and western regions. Based on the tourist traffic data of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism in 2005-2017, through the quartile space grading, comparing concentration and difference index and measuring the track of gravity center, the spatial structure changes of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are analyzed. The results indicate that National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism present obvious “Hu Line” spatial distribution characteristics. Over the years, the tourist size of both increased and it has demonstrated a trend of expanding westward. The regional gap of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism tends to be flat, and the latter flattening trend is more apparent, but the cumulative market share difference on both sides of the “Hu Line” is still relatively large. The gravity centers of National Day Golden Week tourism and annual domestic tourism are shifting to southwest region, and the annual is sharper than the Golden Week. Combining population, economy distribution and their trade-offs, three standards for domestic tourism to span the “Hu Line” are set. According to time series analysis and forecast, domestic tourism has crossed the economy boundary (4%) in 2016. It is expected that it will break through the population-economy balance boundary (5%)in 2020-2021, and it will surmount the population boundary (6%) in 2023-2024.
