16 scenarios were set combining climate scenarios and policy scenarios， and land use of 2050 in the Guanzhong plain were simulated by using land change modeler(LCM) of IDRISI software. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yield were quantified based on different ecosystem models. The results show that global climate change has a strong influence on future land use change. Land use type and ecosystem services change under different climate scenarios. The implementation of carbon tax policy has a greater impact on forest land, a negative effect on water production, and a positive effect on both soil retention and carbon sequestration. The implementation of population policy has a significant impact on urban land use, reducing carbon sequestration and soil conservation capacity, and increasing water production capacity. In the case of high carbon sequestration and soil conservation, the corresponding water yield is usually low. In the case of low carbon sequestration and soil conservation, the corresponding water yield is usually higher. Simulating land use type and ecosystem services based on policy can provide a reliable basis for the formulation of regional polices and contribute to the sustainable development of the region.

Guanzhong plain; land-use; ecosystem services; scenarios