Abstract:
Collecting inbound tourism income, domestic tourism income and gross domestic product (GDP) data systematically, the fluctuation cycle of tourism and economic development in China was analyzed by the theory of natural trend curve. Results show that there are a number of different length cycles in inbound tourism, domestic tourism and economic development, which show wave in the wave and wave outside the wave. According to the economic cycle division, there are three cycles in the development of domestic tourism which are Juglar cycle, Kitchin cycle and Kuznets cycle, and four cycles in the inbound tourism and economic development which are Juglar cycle, Kitchin cycle, Kuznets cycle and System release cycle. The fluctuation cycles of inbound tourism, domestic tourism development and economic development have obvious non-synchronization, and the length of non-synchronization is about 1-3 years.Tourism development has a certain anti-periodicity in economy.In different stages of fluctuation cycle, the driving role of tourism to economy is different from role of economy to tourism. Meanwhile, tourism development is significant in delaying the rate of recession and accelerating the economic recovery.
