自然科学版
陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版)
资源与环境科学
陕西省居民消费碳排放测算与分析
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张艳芳, 张宏运
(陕西师范大学 旅游与环境学院, 陕西 西安 710119)
张艳芳,女,副教授,博士,主要从事水土资源评价、生态安全与低碳研究。E-mail: zhangyf@snnu.edu.cn
摘要:
基于IPCC清单法和投入产出模型,核算1996—2012年陕西省居民消费的直接和间接碳排放,分析居民消费碳排放的结构与动态特征;运用结构分解模型,分析产业碳排放强度、消费结构、人均消费水平等6个因素对居民消费碳排放的影响。结果表明:1996—2012年陕西省居民消费煤炭和电力产生的直接碳排放量所占比重最大,居民消费食品制造与烟草加工业、化工制品和教育与其他服务业产生的间接碳排放所占比重较大;总体上,城镇居民消费碳排放大于乡村,间接碳排放大于直接碳排放;居民消费碳排放总量和间接碳排放呈现先增加后减少的趋势,而直接碳排放总体上呈增加的趋势,平均年增长率为5.76%;六大因素对居民消费碳排放的影响总体上为负效应,其中产业碳排放强度为主要负影响因子,人均消费水平为主要正影响因子。
关键词:
碳排放; 投入产出模型; 结构分解模型; 居民; 消费
收稿日期:
2014-10-10
中图分类号:
K928.6
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1672-4291(2016)02-0098-08doi:10.15983/j.cnki.jsnu.2016.02.423
基金项目:
国家自然科学基金(41371523); 国家社会科学基金(14XKS019)
Doi:
Calculation and analysis on carbon emissions of residents′ consumption in Shaanxi province
ZHANG Yanfang, ZHANG Hongyun
(School of Tourism and Environment Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710119, Shaanxi, China)
Abstract:
Based on the IPCC inventory method and input-output model, the direct and indirect carbon emissions of residents′ consumption in Shaanxi province were calculated, and the structure and dynamic characteristics of consumer′s carbon emissions were analyzed. Using structural decomposition model, the six factors including the industrial carbon emissions intensity, consumption structure, the per capita consumption levels and so on,affecting the consumer carbon emissions were analyzed. The results showed direct carbon emissions which generated by coal and electricity of residents′ consumption have the largest share in Shaanxi province from 1996 to 2012,and indirect carbon emissions which generated by food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry, chemical products,education and other services of residents′ consumption occupied a large proportion of emissions. In general, consumer′s carbon emissions of urban is greater than that of village, and indirect carbon emissions is greater than the direct. The total and indirect consumer carbon emissions show a trend of decreasing after the first increasing. Direct consumer carbon emissions increased at the rate of 5.76% in general. Six factors have the negative effects on the consumer′s carbon emissions. Among which, industrial carbon emissions intensity is the major negative factor, and per capita consumption is the main positive factor.
KeyWords:
carbon emissions; input-output model; structural decomposition model; resident; consuption