Abstract:
In order to test the effect of symmetry and commensurability that apply to judging the trend of natural disasters,the objective effect evaluation indexes about the trend judgement of natural disasters were established through combining quantitative method and qualitative method.The results show that the judgment accuracy of earthquake, drought and flood disaster, and snow disaster is 61.5%, 65% and 60% respectively. Among them, the judgment accuracy of flood disaster reaches 87.5%. The study provides the evaluation basis for testing the trend judgment, and it can regulate and promote the trend research level about natural disasters.
