哲学社会科学版
陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
经济学研究
向量自回归还是动态随机一般均衡?——货币政策研究范式的比较与展望
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沈悦, 李善燊, 谢坤锋
(西安交通大学 经济与金融学院, 陕西 西安 710061)
沈悦,女,陕西大荔人,西安交通大学经济与金融学院教授,博士研究生导师。
摘要:
现代货币政策研究基本按照“让数据本身说明一切”和“按照严密的理论分析演绎”两种范式演进,前者以向量自回归(VAR)模型为代表,后者以动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型为典范。二者同是起源于结构式分析,但是在理论严谨性、理性预期的引入、参数估计方法以及模拟、预测和决策功能上存在一定差异。以DSGE-VAR模型为典型代表,实现理论演绎与计量技术的有效结合是现代货币政策研究范式演化的可行途径。
关键词:
货币政策研究范式; 向量自回归; 动态随机一般均衡
收稿日期:
2012-08-16
中图分类号:
F820.1
文献标识码:
文章编号:
1672-4283(2013)03-0016-06
基金项目:
Doi:
A Vector Autoregression or a General Balance of Dynamic RAM?
SHEN Yue, LI Shansang, XIE Kunfeng
(College of Economics and Banking, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, Shaanxi)
Abstract:
Modern study of currency policy primarily follow two patterns: the pattern of “Data are everything by themselves” or that of “deductive analysis based on a rigorous theory”. The former is characteristic of the mode of vector regression while the latter is typical of the mode of general balance of dynamic RAM. The two patterns were both derived from structural analysis, so prove not to be efficient enough in theoretical rigorousness, introduction of rational expectation and estimating means by parameters, and imitating, predicting and decisionmaking functions. As a result, the DSGEVAR mode as a typical modern pattern of currency policy study offers a most balancing means for development by realizing an effective combination of theoretical deduction with measuring technology.
KeyWords:
pattern of currency policy study; vector autoregression; general balance of dynamic RAM