Abstract:
An exploratory investigation of the features of means from shortterm CPI inflation fluctuation to longterm balance by timeshare adjustment means shows that the lagged CPI items since 1990 tend to have prominent effects on inflation and intensify the inertia of inflation. The market subject tends to hold forward expectations in time of deflation but backward expectations in time of inflation. Financial expenditure helps restrain the rise of price in time of inflation but reverse the fall of CPI in time of deflation. The price of agricultural produce and indexes of stock price tend to clearly have positive effects on CPI inflation and the rise of real estate produces a “transfer effect” to restrain CPI inflation. In time of inflation general loaning, net export and the inertia of inflation are the major promoting factors, but the participation of the price of produce futures and real estate, the indexes of stock price and the equation of exfactory price of industrial commodity gives a stronger explanatory power to CPI fluctuation. However, the impact of supply has come to be a most prominent factor to inflation just recently.