哲学社会科学版
陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
学术前沿:地震预测体系的构建
关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证
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延军平,闫娜
(陕西师范大学 旅游与环境学院, 陕西 西安 710062)
延军平(1956—),男,陕西绥德人,陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院教授,博士生导师。
摘要:
对于地震物理机理预测预报的世界难题,可按照由表及里逐步逼近的思路,探讨构建地震预测圈层结构的可能性。应逐步建立和完善地震预测体系,以地震数学分析预测方法补充和完善物理预测方法。可应用可公度方法进行我国某地地震趋势探索研究,以获得更多数学预测方法的实证结果。
关键词:
地震预测体系; 地震预报; 数学预测方法; 物理预测方法; 可公度法
收稿日期:
2008-04-20
中图分类号:
P31575
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1672-4283(2008)05-0019-05
基金项目:
Doi:
Probability and Verification of Constructing an Earthquake Predicting System
YAN Junping, YAN Na
(College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xian 710062, Shaanxi)
Abstract:
Prediction and forecasting of the physical mechanism of earthquake is one of the worldwide hard nuts. Exploring probability of predicting the structure of earthquakegenerating circular hierarchy should follow a steadilyadvancing approach from outside to inside. The system of earthquake prediction is to be gradually established and completed by supplementing and perfecting physical prediction with mathematic prediction. With the application of officiallymeasurable means in investigating the tendency of earthquake in certain regions of our country, more results from mathematic and investigative earthquake prediction can be obtained.
KeyWords:
system of earthquake prediction; forecasting of earthquake; means of mathematic prediction; means of physical prediction; officiallymeasurable means