哲学社会科学版
陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
经济学研究
人口结构变动下中国消费的未来趋势
朱雅玲, 张彬
(陕西师范大学 国际商学院, 陕西 西安 710119)
朱雅玲,女,浙江诸暨人,经济学博士,陕西师范大学国际商学院副研究员。
摘要:
第七次全国人口普查数据显现出中国人口增长率下滑但质量提升、性别结构改善但户均规模减小、少儿化和老龄化并存、流动人口两极分化愈发明显的结构新变化,并将通过人才红利效应、年龄结构效应、收入分配效应及生活成本效应对消费需求产生巨大影响,助推消费智能化、健康化、分级化和特色化的未来趋势。从人口结构变动、消费新趋势视域提振消费,需要供、需双侧协同发力,形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡,提升国民经济体系整体效能,加快双循环新发展格局的构建。
关键词:
人口结构; 居民消费; 人口老龄化; 供需适配; 双循环
收稿日期:
2021-04-15
中图分类号:
F126.1
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1672-4283(2021)04-0149-14
基金项目:
国家自然科学基金青年项目“居民食品消费中的量化自我困境:营养合理性评估习惯形成与健康促进策略研究”(72203113)
Doi:
The Future Trend of China’s Consumption Under the Change of Demographic Structure
ZHU Yaling, ZHANG Bin
(International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, Shaanxi)
Abstract:
China’s demographic structure has undergone significant changes according to the data of the Seventh National Census: the population growth rate has declined but the population quality has improved, the gender structure has gradually improved but the average household size has decreased, the coexistence of childliking and aging and the polarization of the floating population are becoming obvious. The abovementioned phenomena will have a huge impact on consumption demand mainly through the effects:talent dividend, age structure, income distribution and living cost, and will boost the formation of consumption with intelligent, healthy, hierarchical and characteristic new trends. Under the demographic structure changes, to boost consumption in accordance with the new trend, the supply side and the demand side need to become in synergy to improve the scale, structure and quality of domestic supply and demand, as well as the adaptability of the supply system to domestic demand, further forming an orderly and smooth circulation system.
KeyWords:
demographic structure; household consumption; aging; supply and demand adaptation; dual circulation