哲学社会科学版
陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
经济学研究
主权数字货币发行、货币政策连续性与宏观经济波动
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于博, 叶子豪
(天津财经大学 金融学院, 天津 300222)
于博,男,天津人,经济学博士,天津财经大学金融学院、天津市金融科技与风险管理实验室副教授。
摘要:
我国央行的主权数字货币研发目前已相对成熟并进入试点阶段,研究主权数字货币发行对经济效应具有较强的现实意义。通过构建一个中等规模的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析主权数字货币发行如何通过影响货币政策连续性来对经济体产生影响,可以发现: (1) 发行主权数字货币会通过影响货币乘数及资本市场投机等渠道加剧货币供给波动性及金融机构对货币政策的敏感性,这会导致货币当局出于稳定性考虑而加强货币政策连续性。(2) 具有不同货币政策连续性的经济体在应对外部冲击时的稳定性特征并不相同,主权数字货币发行会抑制与货币直接相关的指标波动,但也放大了其他指标的波动,尽管后者相对于前者的波动较小。(3) 在货币政策更具连续性的经济体中,其他冲击的相对影响力会被削弱,影响更多地来自于利率冲击。发行主权数字货币的经济体更难适应技术冲击和政府支出冲击。伴随主权数字货币发行,货币当局应更加明确政策工具、保持政策连续性并提高前瞻性指引。
关键词:
主权数字货币; 货币政策; 动态随机一般均衡; 经济效应
收稿日期:
2021-05-09
中图分类号:
F822;F015
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1672-4283(2021)04-0133-16
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金一般项目“货币政策波动与企业投资结构再平衡研究”(17BGL062);天津市高校“中青年骨干创新人才培养计划”(津教人函〔2020〕4号)
Doi:
The Issue of Digital Currency Electronic Payment, Persistence of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuation
YU Bo, YE Zihao
(School of Finance, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222)
Abstract:
The technology of Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) in China has become relatively mature and has entered the pilot stage. Thus, the study of DCEP has a strong practical significance to the economic effect. By establishing a four sector DSGE model, this paper studies the impact of the issuance of DCEP on the economy through the continuity of monetary policy. The results show that first, the issuance of digital currency not only suppresses the volatility of indicators directly related to currency, but also enlarges the volatility of other indicators, and the latter has less volatility than the former; second, the economies adopting digital currency are more difficult to adapt to the impact of technology and government expenditure; third, after the issuance of digital currency and the enhancement of monetary policy continuity, the economic growth will increase the relative influence of other shocks is weakened, and the impact is more from the interest rate shocks. According to the research results, we believe that in economies issuing DCEP, monetary authorities should be clear about monetary policy tools and pursue more continuous monetary policy.
KeyWords:
Digital Currency Electronic Payment(DCEP); monetary policy; DSGE; economic effect