哲学社会科学版
陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
社会发展与治理研究
人口量质转型与中国经济增长
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郭 剑 雄
(陕西师范大学 西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院, 陕西 西安 710119)
郭剑雄,男,陕西府谷人,陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院教授,博士研究生导师。
摘要:
随着人口生产阶段的变迁,分别存在着马尔萨斯型增长、刘易斯型增长、索洛型增长和内生增长的经济增长类型的演化。在经济增长的不同类型中,人口增长与经济增长的关系不同。人口增长作为工业化扩张的有利条件,构成刘易斯型高速增长的重要原因之一;在工业化扩张阶段以外的其他经济增长类型中,人口增长不是经济增长的决定性因素。因此,不能在普遍意义上获得人口增长是经济增长主要原因的结论。越过人口红利期的中国经济,必须实现资本深化、技术进步和开掘人口质量红利的增长动力转换。
关键词:
人口变迁; 经济增长类型; 人口质量红利; 中国经济增长
收稿日期:
2019-03-06
中图分类号:
C924.2;F120.3
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1672-4283(2019)06-0022-12
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金项目“城镇化背景下现代农民的成长机制及政策环境研究”(14BJY031);陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(201904)
Doi:
The Demographic Transition From Quantity to Quality and Economic Growth in China
GUO Jianxiong
(Northwest Institution of Historical Environment and Economic Society Development, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, Shaanxi)
Abstract:
During the change of production phases with regards to population, there exist distinct types of evolution, such as Malthus growth, Lewis growth, Solow growth and endogenous growth. In the different types of economic growth, there are different relationships between population growth and economic growth. Population growth, as a favorable condition for the expansion of industrialization, is one of the important reasons for rapid Lewis growth. In other types of economic growth outside the phase of industrial expansion, population growth is not the decisive factor of economic growth. As a result, it cannot be generally concluded that population growth is the main cause of economic growth. China’s economy, which has passed the period of demographic dividend, needs to accomplish the transformation of growth impetuses including capital deepening, technological progress and the dividend of exploiting demographic quality.
KeyWords:
population change; type of economic growth; dividend of demographic quality; the economic growth in China